Rays at Padres
Last play · Tirso Ornelas grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Padres0%
TB 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 0 SD
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Padres favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — -14% Rays
9Taylor Walls walks. Yandy Díaz scores. Travis Jankowski to 3rd. Christopher Morel to 2nd.4–1
6Fernando Tatis Jr. singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Chandler Simpson. Tyler Wade scores.3–1
5Curtis Mead out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Brandon Lowe scores.3–0
3Christopher Morel doubles (6) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Tyler Wade. Junior Caminero scores.2–0
3Brandon Lowe homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










