Rays at Padres
Last play · Yuli Gurriel grounds out, third baseman Junior Caminero to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Padres0%
TB 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 2 SD
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Padres favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz walks. (inning 5) — -16% Rays
9Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to left fielder Oscar Gonzalez. Travis Jankowski scores. Chandler Simpson to 2nd.4–2
5Yandy Díaz walks.3–2
3Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kameron Misner. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–2
3Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tyler Wade. Chandler Simpson scores.2–1
3Taylor Walls homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
2Jose Iglesias singles on a ground ball to right fielder Kameron Misner. Xander Bogaerts scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










