Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Nolan Arenado flies out to center fielder TJ Friedl.
Win probability
Reds100%
STL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 2 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Trevino homers (2) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 3) — +19% Reds
6Gavin Lux doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Austin Hays scores.1–3
4Noelvi Marte triples (1) on a line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Gavin Lux scores.1–2
3Jose Trevino homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1Nolan Arenado doubles (9) on a fly ball to left fielder Gavin Lux. Lars Nootbaar scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










