Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Isiah Kiner-Falefa flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CHC 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 0 PIT
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carson Kelly homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Seiya Suzuki scores. (inning 4) — -26% Cubs
9Carson Kelly singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Seiya Suzuki scores.9–0
8Dansby Swanson homers (5) on a line drive to left field.8–0
7Seiya Suzuki homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Kyle Tucker scores.7–0
7Kyle Tucker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Ian Happ scores.5–0
5Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Nico Hoerner scores.4–0
4Carson Kelly homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Seiya Suzuki scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










