Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Jon Berti called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates100%
CHC 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 2 PIT
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-175 / +145
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew McCutchen doubles (6) on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, deflected by shortstop Dansby Swanson. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 7) — +44% Pirates
7Andrew McCutchen doubles (6) on a ground ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, deflected by shortstop Dansby Swanson. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Bryan Reynolds scores.3–4
5Seiya Suzuki called out on strikes.3–2
5Kyle Tucker grounds out to first baseman Matt Gorski. Jon Berti scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.2–2
5Ian Happ singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Dansby Swanson scores. Jon Berti to 2nd.1–2
4Pirates challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Pirates challenged (home-plate collision), call on the field was upheld: Jared Triolo out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Joey Bart scores.0–2
1Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a fly ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Oneil Cruz scores. Joey Bart to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










