Cardinals at Reds
Last play · Luken Baker pops out to first baseman Spencer Steer in foul territory.
Win probability
Reds100%
STL 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Reds favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Trevino homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Gavin Lux scores. (inning 2) — +20% Reds
8Matt McLain singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. TJ Friedl scores.1–9
7Santiago Espinal singles on a ground ball to left fielder Lars Nootbaar. Elly De La Cruz scores. Noelvi Marte scores.1–8
7Noelvi Marte singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. TJ Friedl scores. Elly De La Cruz to 3rd. Noelvi Marte to 2nd.1–6
6Spencer Steer homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
4Jose Trevino out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Santiago Espinal scores.1–4
4Gavin Lux grounds into a force out, second baseman Brendan Donovan to shortstop Masyn Winn. Noelvi Marte scores. Santiago Espinal to 3rd. Spencer Steer out at 2nd. Gavin Lux to 1st.1–3
3Nolan Arenado singles on a fly ball to shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Brendan Donovan scores. Nolan Arenado to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Elly De La Cruz.1–2
2Jose Trevino homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Gavin Lux scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










