Red Sox at Blue Jays
Last play · Rob Refsnyder grounds out to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
BOS 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 0 TOR
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. Nathan Lukes scores. Bo Bichette scores. (inning 8) — +66% Blue Jays
8Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. Nathan Lukes scores. Bo Bichette scores.2–4
7Daulton Varsho homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
5Alex Bregman doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Alan Roden. Rob Refsnyder scores. David Hamilton scores. Rafael Devers to 3rd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










