Padres at Pirates
Last play · Joey Bart grounds into a force out, third baseman Manny Machado to second baseman Jose Iglesias. Andrew McCutchen out at 2nd.
Win probability
Pirates0%
SD 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 5 – 3 PIT
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Pirates favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adam Frazier homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — +21% Pirates
9Jason Heyward out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jose Iglesias to 3rd.9–4
8Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alexander Canario. Jason Heyward scores. Brandon Lockridge scores.8–4
8Brandon Lockridge singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Tyler Wade scores. Jason Heyward to 3rd.6–4
6Adam Frazier homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.5–4
5Enmanuel Valdez grounds out to first baseman Luis Arraez. Oneil Cruz scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd.5–3
5Gavin Sheets singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Manny Machado scores.5–2
5Manny Machado singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds, deflected by center fielder Oneil Cruz. Luis Arraez scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Throwing error by right fielder Bryan Reynolds.4–2
5Luis Arraez doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Oscar Gonzalez scores.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










