Padres at Pirates
Last play · Bryan Reynolds lines into a double play, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez. Oneil Cruz out at 1st.
Win probability
Pirates0%
SD 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 1 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Pirates favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts grounds out, shortstop Jared Triolo to first baseman Enmanuel Valdez. (inning 9) — -33% Padres
9Xander Bogaerts grounds out, shortstop Jared Triolo to first baseman Enmanuel Valdez.2–1
7Manny Machado homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
2Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., deflected by second baseman Jose Iglesias. Alexander Canario scores. Jared Triolo to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










