Twins at Red Sox
Last play · Jarren Duran strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
MIN 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+155 / -185
Red Sox favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Jeffers singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Harrison Bader scores. Christian Vázquez scores. (inning 7) — -36% Twins
8Wilyer Abreu homers (7) on a fly ball to right field.5–4
8Trevor Larnach singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Harrison Bader scores.5–3
8Harrison Bader doubles (4) on a fly ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Carlos Correa scores.4–3
7Ryan Jeffers singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Harrison Bader scores. Christian Vázquez scores.3–3
3Romy Gonzalez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Alex Bregman scores.1–3
2Carlos Narváez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Wilyer Abreu scores. Romy Gonzalez scores.1–2
1Byron Buxton homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










