Padres at Pirates
Last play · Andrew McCutchen strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
SD 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 4 – 0 PIT
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Pirates favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Elias Díaz homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — -16% Padres
2Xander Bogaerts doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tommy Pham. Brandon Lockridge scores. Luis Arraez scores. Xander Bogaerts to 3rd. Xander Bogaerts advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Jared Triolo.4–0
2Elias Díaz homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
1Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Manny Machado scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










