Giants at Cubs
Last play · David Villar grounds out, shortstop Dansby Swanson to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
SF 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSF 2 – 4 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Cubs favored ↑50%Giants favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Matos homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Chapman scores. (inning 4) — -24% Giants
6Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Dansby Swanson scores. Nicky Lopez scores. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.2–9
6Ian Happ out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Nico Hoerner scores.2–7
6Nicky Lopez walks. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.2–6
6Carson Kelly homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.2–5
4Dansby Swanson singles on a line drive to left fielder Heliot Ramos. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Nico Hoerner scores.2–4
4Luis Matos homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Chapman scores.2–2
3Ian Happ homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Dansby Swanson scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










