Phillies at Rays
Last play · Curtis Mead called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rays0%
PHI 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 3 – 2 TB
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +110
Rays favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 4) — +21% Rays
9Junior Caminero out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Jonathan Aranda scores. Kameron Misner to 3rd.8–4
9Nick Castellanos singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Travis Jankowski. Bryce Harper scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.8–3
8Chandler Simpson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Kepler. Travis Jankowski scores.7–3
8Nick Castellanos homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryce Harper scores. Kyle Schwarber scores.7–2
8Kyle Schwarber singles on a line drive to right fielder Travis Jankowski. Trea Turner scores. Bryce Harper to 2nd.4–2
4Yandy Díaz homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Lowe scores.3–2
2Alec Bohm homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Nick Castellanos scores.3–0
2Kyle Schwarber homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










