Orioles at Twins
Last play · Jackson Holliday flies out to left fielder Willi Castro.
Win probability
Twins100%
BAL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 1 – 5 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Twins favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Jeffers singles on a line drive to right fielder Heston Kjerstad. Willi Castro scores. Byron Buxton scores. (inning 3) — +17% Twins
7Carlos Correa singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Ty France scores.1–9
7Byron Buxton homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Jonah Bride scores. Willi Castro scores.1–8
4Ryan Mountcastle doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Willi Castro. Gunnar Henderson scores.1–5
3Carlos Correa homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Ryan Jeffers scores.0–5
3Ryan Jeffers singles on a line drive to right fielder Heston Kjerstad. Willi Castro scores. Byron Buxton scores.0–3
3Byron Buxton doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Dylan Carlson. Trevor Larnach scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










