Orioles at Twins
Last play · Heston Kjerstad strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Twins100%
BAL 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 3 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Twins favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Willi Castro scores. Kody Clemens scores. (inning 3) — +38% Twins
7Harrison Bader homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. DaShawn Keirsey Jr. scores.2–5
5Heston Kjerstad singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Trevor Larnach. Ramón Laureano scores.2–3
3Byron Buxton homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Willi Castro scores. Kody Clemens scores.1–3
3Ramón Laureano homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










