Rangers at Red Sox
Last play · Josh Smith flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TEX 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran grounds out, second baseman Marcus Semien to first baseman Joc Pederson. Carlos Narváez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd. (inning 2) — +20% Red Sox
7Rafael Devers homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.0–5
6Carlos Narváez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Trevor Story scores.0–4
5Rafael Devers singles on a line drive to center fielder Evan Carter. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.0–3
2Jarren Duran grounds out, second baseman Marcus Semien to first baseman Joc Pederson. Carlos Narváez scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










