Cubs at Mets
Last play · Dansby Swanson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mets100%
CHC 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — +15% Mets
9Michael Busch homers (7) on a line drive to right center field.2–7
8Juan Soto singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Francisco Lindor scores.1–7
4Juan Soto homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–6
4Kyle Tucker homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.1–5
3Luisangel Acuña grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Dansby Swanson. Brandon Nimmo scores. Francisco Alvarez scores. Brett Baty out at 2nd. Luisangel Acuña to 1st. Throwing error by shortstop Dansby Swanson.0–5
2Jeff McNeil homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
2Brett Baty homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
1Francisco Lindor homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










