Cubs at Mets
Last play · Juan Soto grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Mets0%
CHC 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 4 – 3 NYM
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Pete Alonso scores. Mark Vientos scores. (inning 4) — +32% Mets
8Brett Baty homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Mark Vientos scores.6–5
8Miguel Amaya singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Michael Busch scores. Nico Hoerner scores. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.6–3
4Brett Baty homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Pete Alonso scores. Mark Vientos scores.4–3
4Dansby Swanson homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.4–0
3Michael Busch singles on a line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Seiya Suzuki scores.3–0
1Dansby Swanson singles on a ground ball to third baseman Brett Baty. Kyle Tucker scores. Seiya Suzuki to 3rd. Justin Turner to 2nd.2–0
1Seiya Suzuki singles on a ground ball to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










