Cubs at Mets
Last play · Carson Kelly grounds out, first baseman Pete Alonso to pitcher Edwin Díaz.
Win probability
Mets100%
CHC 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 0 – 1 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Mets favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Francisco Lindor homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 8) — +38% Mets
8Brandon Nimmo homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. José Azócar scores.2–6
8Mark Vientos singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Pete Alonso scores.2–4
8Francisco Lindor homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.2–3
7Nico Hoerner doubles (8) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Michael Busch scores.2–2
6Mark Vientos homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
6Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
2Luis Torrens triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Starling Marte scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










