Brewers at Rays
Last play · Taylor Walls called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rays0%
MIL 100%TB 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 3 – 2 TB
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Rays favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Caballero out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Jonathan Aranda scores. (inning 4) — +16% Rays
8Rhys Hoskins singles on a ground ball to left fielder Travis Jankowski. Christian Yelich scores.4–2
5Caleb Durbin grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Jake Bauers scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.3–2
4José Caballero out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Chourio. Jonathan Aranda scores.2–2
4William Contreras homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–1
4Christian Yelich homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
1Jonathan Aranda singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Bauers. Chandler Simpson scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










