Reds at Astros
Last play · Austin Hays flies out to right fielder Cam Smith.
Win probability
Astros100%
CIN 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 4 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Astros favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz homers (4) on a line drive to left field. Isaac Paredes scores. Christian Walker scores. (inning 3) — +27% Astros
6Christian Walker singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Cam Smith scores. Jeremy Peña scores. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.0–6
4Christian Walker out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Gavin Lux. Cam Smith scores.0–4
3Yainer Diaz homers (4) on a line drive to left field. Isaac Paredes scores. Christian Walker scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










