Cardinals at Nationals
Last play · Josh Bell strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
STL 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 1 WSH
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Nationals favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (6) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — -16% Cardinals
8Nolan Arenado homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Masyn Winn scores.6–1
7Victor Scott II singles on a line drive to center fielder Dylan Crews. Iván Herrera scores. Yohel Pozo to 3rd.4–1
7Yohel Pozo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dylan Crews. Nolan Arenado scores. Iván Herrera to 2nd.3–1
4Nathaniel Lowe homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
2Willson Contreras homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
1Lars Nootbaar homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










