Marlins at Cubs
Last play · Derek Hill called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cubs100%
MIA 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 5 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+205 / -250
Cubs favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dansby Swanson homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Nico Hoerner scores. (inning 5) — +25% Cubs
7Derek Hill homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Ronny Simon scores.2–5
5Seiya Suzuki homers (10) on a line drive to left center field. Kyle Tucker scores.0–5
5Kyle Tucker triples (3) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Miguel Amaya scores.0–3
5Dansby Swanson homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Nico Hoerner scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










