Royals at Astros
Last play · Isaac Paredes homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.
Win probability
Astros100%
KC 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 0 HOU
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Astros favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Paredes homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 9) — +23% Astros
9Isaac Paredes homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
6Jeremy Peña homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
5Freddy Fermin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Maikel Garcia scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










