Twins at Orioles
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn grounds out to first baseman Kody Clemens.
Win probability
Orioles0%
MIN 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 3 BAL
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Orioles favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Vázquez homers (1) on a line drive to left center field. Carlos Correa scores. Willi Castro scores. (inning 4) — -38% Twins
9Kody Clemens walks.6–3
9Trevor Larnach doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler O'Neill. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd. Trevor Larnach advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by right fielder Tyler O'Neill.5–3
4Christian Vázquez homers (1) on a line drive to left center field. Carlos Correa scores. Willi Castro scores.4–3
4Brooks Lee homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
3Gunnar Henderson homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan Mountcastle scores.0–3
3Ryan Mountcastle doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Harrison Bader. Ramón Urías scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










