Pirates at Mets
Last play · Luisangel Acuña flies out sharply to center fielder Jihwan Bae.
Win probability
Mets0%
PIT 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 0 NYM
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+225 / -275
Mets favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Gorski homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. (inning 2) — -24% Pirates
5Jared Triolo homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Jihwan Bae scores.4–0
2Matt Gorski homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










