Braves at Red Sox
Last play · Wilyer Abreu flies out to right fielder Stuart Fairchild.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
ATL 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 0 BOS
Braves led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Red Sox favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Olson homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — -20% Braves
9Trevor Story singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Alex Bregman scores.4–2
9Nick Allen walks. Ozzie Albies scores. Michael Harris II to 3rd. Stuart Fairchild to 2nd.4–1
9Stuart Fairchild walks. Luke Williams scores. Ozzie Albies to 3rd. Michael Harris II to 2nd.3–1
7Rob Refsnyder homers (3) on a line drive to left field.2–1
2Sean Murphy homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.2–0
2Matt Olson homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










