Rays at Marlins
Last play · Ronny Simon grounds out to first baseman Jonathan Aranda.
Win probability
Marlins0%
TB 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 0 MIA
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
Marlins favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Danny Jansen scores. Chandler Simpson scores. Brandon Lowe to 2nd. (inning 5) — -20% Rays
5Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Stowers. Brandon Lowe scores. Yandy Díaz to 2nd.4–0
5Yandy Díaz singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Danny Jansen scores. Chandler Simpson scores. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.3–0
5Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Stowers. José Caballero scores. Danny Jansen to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










