Pirates at Phillies
Last play · Ke'Bryan Hayes strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies100%
PIT 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 1 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 54.5% · hold 7.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / -105
Phillies favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Marsh grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Nick Castellanos scores. Max Kepler out at 2nd. Brandon Marsh to 1st. (inning 5) — +15% Phillies
5Brandon Marsh grounds into a force out, fielded by shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Nick Castellanos scores. Max Kepler out at 2nd. Brandon Marsh to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










