Rays at Marlins
Last play · Jonathan Aranda pops out to pitcher Anthony Bender.
Win probability
Marlins100%
TB 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 3 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-180 / +135
Marlins favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Otto Lopez homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Mervis scores. Eric Wagaman scores. (inning 4) — +38% Marlins
6Liam Hicks homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Eric Wagaman scores.1–5
4Otto Lopez homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Matt Mervis scores. Eric Wagaman scores.1–3
3Yandy Díaz reaches on a fielder's choice. Taylor Walls scores. Ben Rortvedt to 2nd. Missed catch error by second baseman Otto Lopez, assist to shortstop Javier Sanoja.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










