Mariners at Padres
Last play · Jason Heyward grounds out softly, catcher Cal Raleigh to first baseman Donovan Solano.
Win probability
Padres0%
SEA 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 1 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48% · hold 6.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -140
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 7) — -26% Mariners
9Dylan Moore singles on a line drive to left fielder Jason Heyward. Cal Raleigh scores. Randy Arozarena scores. Donovan Solano to 2nd.4–1
7Cal Raleigh homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.2–1
5Rowdy Tellez homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
4Gavin Sheets homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










