Mariners at Padres
Last play · Jake Cronenworth pops out to shortstop J.P. Crawford.
Win probability
Padres0%
SEA 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 3 – 1 SD
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 48% · hold 6.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -140
Padres favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Leody Taveras hits a ground-rule double (5) on a line drive to right field. Rowdy Tellez scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd. (inning 4) — -14% Mariners
9Julio Rodríguez singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Leo Rivas scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.6–1
9Cal Raleigh out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Dylan Moore scores. Leo Rivas to 3rd.5–1
6Mitch Garver singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Randy Arozarena scores.4–1
4Miles Mastrobuoni singles on a line drive to second baseman Jake Cronenworth, deflected by pitcher Michael King. Mitch Garver scores. Leody Taveras to 3rd.3–1
4Leody Taveras hits a ground-rule double (5) on a line drive to right field. Rowdy Tellez scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd.2–1
4Randy Arozarena homers (6) on a line drive to left center field.1–1
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










