Mets at Red Sox
Last play · Francisco Alvarez grounds into a double play, second baseman David Hamilton to shortstop Trevor Story to first baseman Nick Sogard. Starling Marte out at 2nd. Francisco Alvarez out at 1st.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
NYM 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 3 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Red Sox favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story singles on a ground ball to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Rafael Devers scores. (inning 1) — +9% Red Sox
3Tyrone Taylor singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Francisco Alvarez scores.1–3
2Jarren Duran triples (6) on a ground ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Carlos Narváez scores.0–3
1Trevor Story singles on a ground ball to shortstop Francisco Lindor. Rafael Devers scores.0–2
1Alex Bregman grounds out, second baseman Jeff McNeil to first baseman Pete Alonso. Jarren Duran scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










