Mets at Red Sox
Last play · Francisco Alvarez lines out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
NYM 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 0 – 2 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Red Sox favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Narváez homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 5) — +22% Red Sox
5Rafael Devers homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
5Carlos Narváez homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










