Cubs at Marlins
CHC14–
MIA1Last play · Graham Pauley grounds out, second baseman Jon Berti to first baseman Justin Turner.
Win probability
Marlins0%
CHC 100%MIA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 1 MIA
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
Marlins favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Fortes homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 3) — +15% Marlins
9Michael Busch doubles (10) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Ian Happ scores. Seiya Suzuki scores.14–1
9Seiya Suzuki doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Eric Wagaman. Jon Berti scores. Justin Turner scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.12–1
9Ian Happ singles on a line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. Jon Berti to 3rd. Justin Turner to 2nd.10–1
6Seiya Suzuki homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. Matt Shaw scores.9–1
6Matt Shaw doubles (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Nico Hoerner scores.7–1
6Justin Turner out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kyle Stowers. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.6–1
6Marlins challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Nico Hoerner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Carson Kelly scores. Dansby Swanson scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong to 3rd.5–1
6Pete Crow-Armstrong singles on a line drive to left fielder Eric Wagaman. Kyle Tucker scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd. Dansby Swanson to 2nd.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.