Astros at Rays
Last play · Taylor Walls out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chas McCormick. Christopher Morel scores.
Win probability
Rays100%
HOU 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 2 – 0 TB
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Rays favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Kameron Misner scores. José Caballero scores. (inning 8) — +44% Rays
9Taylor Walls out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chas McCormick. Christopher Morel scores.2–3
8Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Kameron Misner scores. José Caballero scores.2–2
3Isaac Paredes homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.2–0
2Jake Meyers doubles (7) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder José Caballero. Victor Caratini scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










