Padres at Blue Jays
Last play · Xander Bogaerts grounds out sharply, third baseman Addison Barger to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
SD 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 3 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Anthony Santander homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Alejandro Kirk scores. (inning 5) — +17% Blue Jays
5Anthony Santander homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Alejandro Kirk scores.0–3
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










