Padres at Blue Jays
Last play · Gavin Sheets pops out to catcher Alejandro Kirk in foul territory.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
SD 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 2 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Lukes homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Ernie Clement scores. (inning 5) — +25% Blue Jays
8Ernie Clement singles on a line drive to left fielder Jason Heyward. Jonatan Clase scores. Addison Barger to 3rd.0–14
8Addison Barger doubles (8) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Brandon Lockridge. George Springer scores. Jonatan Clase to 3rd.0–13
8Daulton Varsho hits a grand slam (7) to center field. Nathan Lukes scores. Bo Bichette scores. Michael Stefanic scores.0–12
8Bo Bichette singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ernie Clement scores. Nathan Lukes to 2nd.0–8
7Jonatan Clase doubles (2) on a fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. George Springer scores. Alejandro Kirk to 3rd.0–7
7George Springer singles on a ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Bo Bichette scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Manny Machado.0–5
7Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ernie Clement scores. Bo Bichette to 2nd.0–4
7Bo Bichette grounds into a force out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Addison Barger scores. Ernie Clement to 3rd. Nathan Lukes out at 2nd. Bo Bichette to 1st.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










