Mariners at Astros
Last play · Donovan Solano lines out to right fielder Cam Smith.
Win probability
Astros100%
SEA 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 6 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremy Peña triples (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Cam Smith scores. Mauricio Dubón scores. (inning 4) — +16% Astros
6Victor Caratini singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Yainer Diaz scores. Christian Walker to 2nd.2–9
6Jose Altuve homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Isaac Paredes scores.2–8
5Jose Altuve homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.2–6
4Jeremy Peña triples (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Cam Smith scores. Mauricio Dubón scores.2–5
4Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to right fielder Miles Mastrobuoni. Jake Meyers scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.2–3
3Jose Altuve out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Miles Mastrobuoni. Mauricio Dubón scores.2–2
3Isaac Paredes grounds into a force out, third baseman Ben Williamson to second baseman Dylan Moore. Cam Smith scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd. Jeremy Peña out at 2nd. Isaac Paredes to 1st.2–1
2Dylan Moore homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










