Padres at Blue Jays
Last play · Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Wade. Daulton Varsho scores. Addison Barger to 2nd.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
SD 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 4 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (8) on a line drive to center field. Jackson Merrill scores. (inning 9) — -44% Padres
11Nathan Lukes singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Wade. Daulton Varsho scores. Addison Barger to 2nd.6–7
11Daulton Varsho triples (1) on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.6–6
11Gavin Sheets singles on a line drive to center fielder Nathan Lukes. Manny Machado scores.6–5
10Jonatan Clase singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Nathan Lukes scores.5–5
10Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Jose Iglesias scores.5–4
9Gavin Sheets homers (8) on a line drive to center field. Jackson Merrill scores.4–4
4Daulton Varsho out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Tyler Heineman scores.2–4
4Bo Bichette singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Jonatan Clase scores. Tyler Heineman to 2nd.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










