Blue Jays at Rays
Last play · Nathan Lukes strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rays100%
TOR 0%TB 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 3 TB
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Rays favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Junior Caminero scores. (inning 3) — +23% Rays
7Jonatan Clase grounds into a double play, second baseman Brandon Lowe to shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Curtis Mead. Alejandro Kirk scores. Addison Barger to 3rd. Ernie Clement out at 2nd. Jonatan Clase out at 1st.1–3
4Curtis Mead homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.0–3
3Brandon Lowe homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. Junior Caminero scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










