Mariners at Astros
Last play · Yainer Diaz flies out to second baseman Dylan Moore.
Win probability
Astros0%
SEA 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cal Raleigh homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 7) — -31% Mariners
7Cal Raleigh homers (17) on a fly ball to right field. Julio Rodríguez scores.5–3
7Julio Rodríguez doubles (6) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. J.P. Crawford scores.3–3
5Christian Walker out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Isaac Paredes scores.2–3
5Miles Mastrobuoni homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
3Isaac Paredes homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. Jeremy Peña scores.1–2
3Leody Taveras homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










