Mariners at Astros
Last play · Leo Rivas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
SEA 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 2 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker flies out to right fielder Dylan Moore. (inning 8) — +12% Astros
2Mitch Garver grounds out, third baseman Mauricio Dubón to first baseman Christian Walker. Randy Arozarena scores.1–2
1Victor Caratini singles on a ground ball to right fielder Dylan Moore, deflected by second baseman Leo Rivas. Christian Walker scores.0–2
1Christian Walker singles on a soft ground ball to pitcher Bryan Woo. Jose Altuve scores. Christian Walker to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Bryan Woo.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










