Cardinals at Orioles
Last play · Jordan Walker strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles100%
STL 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 2 – 5 BAL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Orioles favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dylan Carlson homers (2) on a line drive to center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Heston Kjerstad scores. (inning 4) — +13% Orioles
5Pedro Pagés homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Nolan Gorman scores.2–5
4Dylan Carlson homers (2) on a line drive to center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Heston Kjerstad scores.0–5
3Jackson Holliday singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Dylan Carlson scores.0–2
1Gunnar Henderson grounds into a force out, third baseman Nolan Gorman to shortstop Masyn Winn. Jackson Holliday scores. Ramón Urías out at 2nd. Gunnar Henderson to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










