Marlins at Padres
Last play · Wild pitch by pitcher Cade Gibson. Tyler Wade scores.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 3 – 2 SD
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Padres favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 8) — +35% Padres
11Wild pitch by pitcher Cade Gibson. Tyler Wade scores.3–4
8Manny Machado homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.3–3
4Jose Iglesias doubles (5) on a ground ball to left fielder Eric Wagaman. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. Luis Campusano to 3rd.3–2
2Jesús Sánchez homers (3) on a line drive to center field.3–0
1Connor Norby singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Agustín Ramírez scores. Otto Lopez to 2nd.2–0
1Agustín Ramírez doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Jesús Sánchez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










