Marlins at Padres
Last play · Kyle Stowers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Padres100%
MIA 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 6 – 7 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Padres favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Wade singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ronny Simon. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. Tyler Wade to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Ronny Simon. (inning 2) — +17% Padres
8Jackson Merrill homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.6–8
5Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Jake Cronenworth scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.6–7
4Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Tyler Wade scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.6–6
3Jake Cronenworth out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Jackson Merrill scores.6–5
3Xander Bogaerts singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Manny Machado scores. Jackson Merrill to 3rd.6–4
2Tyler Wade singles on a ground ball to second baseman Ronny Simon. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jake Cronenworth scores. Tyler Wade to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Ronny Simon.6–3
1Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.6–1
1Javier Sanoja out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Ronny Simon scores. Victor Mesa Jr. to 2nd.6–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










