Marlins at Padres
Last play · Manny Machado pops out to first baseman Eric Wagaman in foul territory.
Win probability
Padres0%
MIA 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 6 – 6 SD
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Padres favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Agustín Ramírez singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Connor Norby scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Victor Mesa Jr. to 2nd. (inning 8) — -52% Marlins
8Eric Wagaman doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. Agustín Ramírez out at home on the throw, left fielder Gavin Sheets to shortstop Xander Bogaerts to catcher Elias Díaz.10–8
8Agustín Ramírez singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Connor Norby scores. Jesús Sánchez scores. Victor Mesa Jr. to 2nd.9–8
7Gavin Sheets homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Luis Arraez scores.7–8
7Agustín Ramírez singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill.7–6
5Otto Lopez homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Agustín Ramírez scores. Eric Wagaman scores.6–6
5Agustín Ramírez singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Javier Sanoja scores.3–6
5Jesús Sánchez homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.2–6
4Manny Machado singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jesús Sánchez. Elias Díaz scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. out at home on the throw, right fielder Jesús Sánchez to catcher Nick Fortes.1–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










