Reds at Cubs
Last play · Nico Hoerner grounds out, shortstop Elly De La Cruz to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Cubs0%
CIN 100%CHC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 0 CHC
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Cubs favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Stephenson homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Will Benson scores. (inning 4) — -17% Reds
8Matt Shaw singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Michael Busch scores.6–2
8Michael Busch triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Nico Hoerner scores.6–1
6Jake Fraley homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Will Benson scores.6–0
4Tyler Stephenson homers (4) on a fly ball to center field. Will Benson scores.4–0
1Gavin Lux singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Elly De La Cruz scores.2–0
1TJ Friedl homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










