Pirates at Padres
Last play · Tommy Pham grounds out, third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez.
Win probability
Padres100%
PIT 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 1 SD
Padres led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -235
Padres favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Merrill reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Adam Frazier. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 6) — +19% Padres
6Jackson Merrill reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Adam Frazier. Luis Arraez scores.2–3
6Luis Arraez doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores.2–2
6Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd.2–1
6Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Tommy Pham scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 2nd.1–1
4Jackson Merrill singles on a ground ball to shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Manny Machado scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










