Rays at Astros
Last play · Brendan Rodgers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
TB 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 4 – 3 HOU
Rays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Astros favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Christopher Morel scores. (inning 3) — -26% Rays
9Yandy Díaz doubles (12) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Shay Whitcomb. José Caballero scores.16–3
9José Caballero singles on a line drive to left fielder Shay Whitcomb. Josh Lowe scores.15–3
8Junior Caminero homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. José Caballero scores. Yandy Díaz scores.14–3
7Josh Lowe homers (3) on a line drive to right field. Curtis Mead scores.11–3
7Jake Mangum homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Junior Caminero scores.9–3
7Junior Caminero doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Brandon Lowe scores.7–3
7Brandon Lowe doubles (6) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. José Caballero scores.6–3
6Jake Mangum singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Meyers. Junior Caminero scores.5–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.










